أخبار وتقاريرموضوعات رئيسية

صندوق النقد ينشر رؤيته حول موريتانيا وتوصياته تجاه الاقتصاد (بيان)

اختتم المجلس التنفيذي لصندوق النقد الدولي في 28 يوليو 2017 مشاورات المادة الرابعة 1 مع سلطنة جمهورية موريتانيا الإسلامية.

لا تزال موريتانيا تواجه بيئة خارجية صعبة تتسم بانخفاض أسعار المعادن وتقلبها. وقد أدى الانخفاض الحاد في أسعار خام الحديد في 2014-2015 إلى فقدان نصف الصادرات، وزيادة عجز الحساب المالي، وفرض ضغوط على الاحتياطيات، والكشف عن مواطن ضعف في الجهاز المصرفي. وإزاء هذه التطورات، أجرت السلطات تعديلا كبيرا في الموازنة العامة في 2016 (بنسبة 3% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي)، وسمحت بسعر صرف أكثر مرونة، وحصلت على منح وقروض أجنبية . وساهمت هذه الجهود في تخفيض الاختلالات الخارجية والحفاظ على الاستقرار الاقتصادي الكلي، فتقلص عجز الحساب الخارجي إلى 15% وتم احتواء التضخم عند متوسط 1.5% في 2016. غير أن النمو ظل منخفضا بمعدل يقدر بنحو 1.7% واستمر الدين الخارجي في الارتفاع (إلى 72% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي) . كذلك أدى تباطؤ النشاط الاقتصادي إلى زيادة المخاطر على الاستقرار المالي. ولمواجهة هذه التطورات، تعمل السلطات على تعزيز الرقابة المصرفية وإعداد استراتيجية وطنية لتحقيق نمو احتوائي بمعدلات أعلى تغطي الفترة 2016-2030، بما في ذلك الإصلاحات الهيكلية والبرنامج واسع النطاق للاستثمار في البنية التحتية بتمويلات أجنبية لدعم الوظائف والنمو وتنويع الاقتصاد.

وقد تحسنت آفاق النمو مع خطط الاستثمار العام والإصلاحات الهيكلية وبعض التعافي في أسعار المعادن – وكان قد استمر لفترة قصيرة. غير أن هناك اختلالات خارجية كبيرة لا تزال قائمة، ولا تزال الآفاق تتشكل تبعا للتطورات الخارجية في أسعار السلع الأولية والاستثمار الأجنبي في القطاعات الاستخراجية، ويمكن أن تفرض مدفوعات سداد الديون الوشيكة مزيدا من الضغوط على الاحتياطيات التي هبطت إلى 4.8 أشهر من واردات القطاعات غير الاستخراجية اعتبارا من مارس 2017. ولكن المشهد يمكن أن يتغير تماما اعتبارا من عام 2021 إذا تم تطوير حقل الغاز المكتشف مؤخرا في المياه الإقليمية.

تقييم المجلس التنفيذي2

أثنى المديرون التنفيذيون على السلطات الموريتانية لقوة سياساتها الاقتصادية في مواجهة البيئة الخارجية الصعبة التي تتسم بانخفاض أسعار المعادن، ولكنهم أشاروا إلى استمرار هشاشة الاستقرار الاقتصادي الكلي والمالي والتعافي الوليد. وعلى هذه الخلفية، اتفقوا على أن التحدي الرئيسي حاليا هو دعم النمو وتخفيض الفقر والبطالة وتنويع الاقتصاد وتلبية احتياجات البنية التحتية، مع العمل على تعزيز الاستقرار الاقتصادي الكلي ودعم المركز الخارجي وإبقاء الديون في حدود يمكن تحملها. وحتى تتحقق هذه الأهداف مع الموارد المحدودة والدين المرتفع، دعا المديرون إلى مواصلة السياسات الحذرة والإصلاحات الهيكلية.

واتفق المديرون على أن الإصلاحات الهيكلية وتحسينات البنية التحتية مطلب أساسي لمعالجة الاختلالات الخارجية ودعم تنويع الاقتصاد. وفي نفس الوقت، دعا معظم المديرين إلى زيادة مرونة سعر الصرف كأحد الأولويات للمساعدة على تعزيز التنافسية وتحسين المركز الخارجي وامتصاص الصدمات والسماح للسياسة النقدية بتحقيق أداء أفضل في معالجة نقص السيولة المصرفية ودعم النمو الاقتصادي. وتساءل بضع مديرين عن مدى إمكانية تعزيز التنافسية من خلال سعر الصرف، بالنظر إلى قاعدة الإنتاج المحدودة، كما أشار بعضهم إلى قلق السلطات من أن تؤدي السياسة النقدية التيسيرية إلى التأثير على الجهود الجارية من أجل استقرار المركز الخارجي الذي لا يزال ضعيفا. وبشكل أعم، حث المديرون السلطات على استحداث نظام تنافسي شفاف لمزادات النقد الأجنبي، وإزالة العقبات التنظيمية أمام إقامة سوق للمعاملات بين البنوك، وتعزيز الاحتياطيات الوقائية.

وأوصى المديرون بتركيز سياسة المالية العامة على تدعيم الضبط المالي الذي تحقق حتى الآن وخلق حيز مالي عن طريق التعجيل بالإصلاحات الجارية. ومن شأن هذا أن يسمح بزيادة الإنفاق الاجتماعي والموجه إلى البنية التحتية دون تهديد الاستقرار الاقتصادي الكلي أو زيادة الدين إلى مستويات يتعذر تحملها. وحث المديرون السلطات على مواصلة تحديث الإدارة الضريبية والجمركية، واستحداث ضريبة على دخل الشركات، واعتماد قانون المالية الأصلي الجديد، ومراجعة الإعفاءات الضريبية وإلغائها بالتدريج. ودعوا إلى تفعيل الإجراءات المتخذة مؤخرا لتعزيز الاستثمارات العامة وإدارة الدين للمساعدة في تحديد المشروعات ذات الأولوية.

اتفق المديرون بشكل عام على الحاجة إلى تجنب الاقتراض بشروط السوق، وإعطاء أفضلية للقروض الميسرة والمنح. وبالنسبة لمفاوضات موريتانيا الجارية مع دائني نادي باريس الثنائيين، أكد بضعة مديرين على أهمية أن يراعي الدائنون الثنائيون الرسميون شرط المعاملة المتماثلة.

وأكد المديرون أهمية معالجة تصاعد المخاطر على الاستقرار المالي ودعم الائتمان المقدم إلى القطاع الخاص. وفي هذا الصدد، شجعوا السلطات على تدعيم التقدم الذي تحقق مؤخرا والتعجيل بتنفيذ توصيات برنامج تقييم القطاع المالي لعام 2014، وخاصة تقوية الرقابة المصرفية وإقرار القانون المصرفي الجديد والنظام الأساسي للبنك المركزي.

ورحب المديرون بمشروع استراتيجية التنمية متعددة السنوات التي وضعتها السلطات لتحقيق نمو احتوائي بمعدلات أعلى، وحثوا على التعجيل باستكمالها وتنفيذها. وأوصى المديرون بتوسيع نطاق السياسات الاجتماعية وتعزيز شبكات الأمان الاجتماعي ومواصلة الجهود لتحسين بيئة الأعمال والحوكمة دعما لنمو القطاع الخاص وخلق فرص العمل وتنويع الاقتصاد. وأكد المديرون أن زيادة الإنفاق على التعليم والصحة من شأنها تحسين النتائج الاجتماعية والإنتاجية، والمساعدة على تخفيض الفقر.

موريتانيا : مؤشرات اقتصادية مختارة، 2015-2018

السكان : 4 مليون نسمة (حسب إحصاء 2014)
نصيب الفرد من إجمالي الناتج المحلي : 1335 (2014)

معدل الفقر : 31% (2014)
معدل البطالة : 13% (2014)

2015

2016

2017

2018
توقعات

(التغير السنوي %)

الناتج والأسعار

إجمالي الناتج المحلي الحقيقي

0.9

1.7

3.8

3.0

من القطاع الاستخراجي

-6.7

-1.4

10.3

-3.5

من غير القطاع الاستخراجي

2.1

2.2

2.9

4.0

مخفِّض إجمالي الناتج المحلي

-4.4

4.1

4.2

2.6

أسعار المستهلكين (متوسط الفترة)

0.5

1.5

2.1

3.7

(% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي غير المرتبط بالصناعات الاستخراجية؛ ما لم يُذكر خلاف ذلك)

عمليات الحكومة المركزية

الإيرادات والمنح

32.5

31.8

30.8

30.3

غير الاستخراجية

26.7

28.0

26.9

26.5

ضريبية

16.8

18.9

18.8

19.0

الاستخراجية

3.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

النفقات

36.3

32.2

31.5

32.8

الجارية

20.5

19.0

18.5

18.1

الرأسمالية

15.5

13.3

12.9

14.5

الرصيد الأولي (باستثناء المنح)

-4.5

-1.3

-1.5

-2.8

الرصيد الكلي (% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي)

-3.4

-0.3

-0.6

-2.1

الدين العام (% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي) 1/

77.8

78.3

77.7

80.8

(% من التغير السنوي، ما لم يُذكَر خلاف ذلك؛ ما لم يذكر خلاف ذلك)

النقود والائتمان

النقود بمعناها الواسع

0.4

7.1

7.3

7.5

الائتمان المقدم للقطاع الخاص

9.7

8.0

6.5

7.4

ميزان المدفوعات

رصيد الحساب الجاري (% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي)

-19.7

-14.9

-15.3

-11.2

باستثناء واردات السلع الرأسمالية الاستخراجية الممولة من الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر

-11.9

-11.1

-8.1

-9.3

الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر (صافي، % من إجمالي الناتج المحلي)

32.0

16.3

25.0

11.1

إجمالي الاحتياطيات الرسمية (بملايين الدولارات الأمريكية، نهاية الفترة)

822.8

824.5

724.9

622.8

بعدد شهور الواردات غير الاستخراجية المرتقبة

5.6

5.5

4.3

3.7

الدين العام الخارجي (% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي) 1/

68.1

72.2

71.2

73.9

سعر الصرف الفعلي الحقيقي (متوسط الفترة)

8.2

-5.7

بنود للتذكرة :

سعر خام الحديد (دولار أمريكي/طن)

56.1

58.6

65.1

51.7

إجمالي الناتج المحلي الاسمي (بملايين الدولارات الأمريكية)

4844.2

4729.0

4960.6

4999.6

المصادر : السلطات الموريتانية؛ وتقديرات وتوقعات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي.

1/ باستثناء الدين الخامل المستحق للكويت والجاري التفاوض بشأنه.

1 تنص المادة الرابعة من اتفاقية تأسيس صندوق النقد الدولي على إجراء مناقشات ثنائية مع البلدان الأعضاء تتم في العادة على أساس سنوي. ويقوم فريق من خبراء الصندوق بزيارة البلد العضو، وجمع المعلومات الاقتصادية والمالية اللازمة، وإجراء مناقشات مع المسؤولين الرسميين حول التطورات والسياسات الاقتصادية في هذا البلد. وبعد العودة إلى مقر الصندوق، يُعِد الخبراء تقريرا يشكل أساسا لمناقشات المجلس التنفيذي في هذا الخصوص.

2 في ختام المناقشات، يقوم مدير عام الصندوق، بصفته رئيس المجلس التنفيذي، بتقديم ملخص لآراء المديرين التنفيذيين ثم يُرسَل هذا الملخص إلى السلطات في البلد العضو. ويمكن الاطلاع على شرح للعبارات الواصفة المستخدمة في تلخيص المناقشات على الموقع الإلكتروني التالي على شبكة الإنترنت :http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .

1 تنص المادة الرابعة من اتفاقية تأسيس صندوق النقد الدولي على إجراء مناقشات ثنائية مع البلدان الأعضاء تتم في العادة على أساس سنوي. ويقوم فريق من خبراء الصندوق بزيارة البلد العضو، وجمع المعلومات الاقتصادية والمالية اللازمة، وإجراء مناقشات مع المسؤولين الرسميين حول التطورات والسياسات الاقتصادية في هذا البلد. وبعد العودة إلى مقر الصندوق، يُعِد الخبراء تقريرا يشكل أساسا لمناقشات المجلس التنفيذي في هذا الخصوص.

2 في ختام المناقشات، يقوم مدير عام الصندوق، بصفته رئيس المجلس التنفيذي، بتقديم ملخص لآراء المديرين التنفيذيين ثم يُرسَل هذا الملخص إلى السلطات في البلد العضو. ويمكن الاطلاع على شرح للعبارات الواصفة المستخدمة في تلخيص المناقشات على الموقع الإلكتروني التالي على شبكة الإنترنت : http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .

 

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